Arif Habib Limited (AHL), a brokerage firm in Pakistan, has predicted a substantial decrease in petroleum prices across the country, starting from October 16. AHL estimates a drop of Rs41 per litre for petrol and Rs19 per litre for diesel.
This optimistic forecast is attributed to the significant decline in international oil prices over the past week, influenced by factors such as demand concerns, a stronger US dollar, inflationary pressures, and rising supplies.
The Finance Ministry had recently lowered petrol prices by Rs8 and diesel prices by Rs11, providing some relief to the public.
AHL's forecast is based on the notable 9% to 11% drop in the prices of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil, Brent, and Arablight, compared to the last fortnightly average prices. International gasoline (MS) witnessed a substantial 15% decrease, while international prices of High-Speed Diesel (HSD) experienced a 10% dip.
The strengthening of the Pakistani rupee against the US dollar also played a role in the anticipated reduction of fuel prices, appreciating by 2.7%.
Taking these factors into account, AHL's analysis indicated that if international prices and currency exchange rates remained stable for the next 10 days, local petrol and diesel prices were expected to decrease by Rs41 and Rs19 per litre, respectively, in the upcoming fortnightly prices. Even with a consistent currency adjustment for petrol and no adjustment for diesel, AHL anticipated a drop of Rs28.6 per litre for petrol and Rs19.3 per litre for diesel in the next pricing cycle.
graph showing the decline in international oil prices over the past weekOpens in a new window
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graph showing the decline in international oil prices over the past week
This is a positive development for Pakistan, as it will help to reduce inflation and ease the financial burden on the public.
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